Friday, September 7, 2012

DNC

Well, it's official.  With the formal nomination of Barack Obama for president of the United States, the contest is now truly joined.

The real highlight of the evening was when former Rep. Gabriel "Gabby" Giffords walked across the stage to lead the attendees in a recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance.    I imagine there were more than a few in attendance who either choked on the words or stood mute. Nonetheless, Mrs. Gifford's story is truly inspirational.  A story of overcoming great obstacles with an even greater grace and courage.

Otherwise, it went along expected lines.  When the cameras were rolling live the speakers toned down the rhetoric somewhat, while giving lip-service to beliefs not evidenced by their actions.  Including, but not limited to, San Antonio's mayor talking about the ethic of pulling one's self up by their own bootstraps.  How does that square with the demand that increased social spending is necessary because people can't make it without government help?  Not to mention the claim that "you didn't build that"?

Over all, I was unimpressed (and unsurprised) with both the tone and substance of the event.  Instead of a recitation of the administration's "successes" over the previous 4 years projected forward to illustrate a bright vision of the future, what was served up at the Democrat National Convention was a rehash of partisan "red meat".

The various Obama surrogates over the early days all made reference to the spurious claim that Romney/Ryan will raise taxes on the middle class to give themselves and their millionaire/billionaire buddies additional tax cuts.  Claiming, among other things, that taxes for the middle class and seniors would go up by as much as $6400 per year (a claim that has been thoroughly debunked as a discarded plan put forth a couple years ago, not anything currently promoted by Messrs. Romney & Ryan, nor by any other leading Republican voice).

There were claims made that the Romney/Ryan ticket would immediately impact retirees and Medicaid/Medicare recipients, that a Romney/Ryan administration would see increased outsourcing of American jobs, that they would benefit the rich at the expense of the poor, etc.(see end of this post for extensive fact checking).

Some of the speeches were quite good.  In fact, no less a conservative luminary than Rush Limbaugh said that, while he didn't think too much of the content, the First Lady's speech was a magnificent example of perfect delivery of a public address.

Others, not so much.  Aside from the predictable Republican bashing, just the general tone was oddly disappointing for a re-election campaign.  It was anything but uplifting.  There was a steady undercurrent of doom and gloom only narrowly averted by our "courageous" President and a recitation of misfortunes that they say are certain to return if Obama is not reelected.

The speeches given on Thursday night by Vice-President Biden and President Obama were curiously unspectacular, given that they were preaching to the choir.  VP Biden's speech began very slowly, beginning with a recitation of various hardships and ending with what I assume was meant to be seen as passion, but was interpreted by at least one political commentator as "angry rhetoric".  I guess we've finally seen the appearance of the "angry white male".

The President's speech was hardly better, leading many to comment that instead of using the moment to inspire, he "phoned it in".

All in all, the DNC, in contrast with the RNC held a week earlier, seemed to be less effective at illustrating the reasons to vote FOR the Democrat nominee.

The Dem blogs were all afire with supposed "fact checks" after the Republican National Convention last week, often referencing liberal media outlets and each other as the cited "authority".  In contrast, the fact checking posted below was not done by a conservative blogger, Breitbart.com or Fox News, but by the AP.  Hardly a bastion of Republican/conservative thought.

[Publisher's note:  The use of italics  below denotes emphasis added.]

-----------------------------------------

FACT CHECK: Obama and the phantom peace dividend

Obama says he wants to use money spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to pay down debt and put people to work in America.

Fact: Using war "savings" to pay for other programs is nothing other than financial sleight of hand.  The wars were financed by borrowing, so there is no existing budgetary item that can be replaced by the new spending.  It will have to be financed by continuing to borrow, thus, it can't result in any real savings. 

———

Obama says that he wants to strengthen Medicare/Medicaid by reducing the cost of healthcare, not by making seniors pay more
.

Fact:  Some of the administration's proposals that have been "floated" in negotiations over healthcare reform (re-vamping co-pays and deductibles) would, indeed, ask some Medicare beneficiaries to pay more, raising costs for retirees and increasing premiums for some.
[Publisher's note: The AP report left out the the proposal by the Obama Administration to cut payments to Medicare/Medicaid providers as a cost saving measure.  Something sure to result in fewer doctors and medical facilities willing to accept new Medicare/Medicaid patients.]

———

Obama claims that this election is a choice between a party that wants to give tax breaks to "corporations that ship jobs overseas" and the party that wants to use government to "open new plants and train new workers and create jobs here in America", while Joe Biden claims that Gov. Romney's  proposed territorial tax system "will create 800,000 jobs, all overseas".

Fact:  Gov. Romney's proposal is aimed at encouraging investment in the U.S., not overseas.  His plan would replace the current global business tax system that, thanks to the various credits, exemptions, and deductions actually provides a incentive to business to keep profits overseas as a means of avoiding higher U.S. tax burdens.  Expert opinion differs on the impact of Mr. Romney's territorial tax system on U.S. employment, but Biden's implication that it would send jobs overseas is not supported by the expert he cites.


Kimberly Clausing is an economics professor at Reed College in Portland, Oregon.  She stated that a territorial tax system could increase employment in low-tax countries by 800,000, but that did not mean that it would be because U.S. jobs were outsourced.  She later wrote: "My analysis does not speak to the effects on jobs in the United States."

———

Obama claims that his economic plan, if adopted, would cut deficits by $4 Trillion over the next 10 years.

Fact: Then-candidate Obama promised in 2008 that if elected he would cut the deficit he "inherited" by half by the end of his first term.  He's not gonna even come close to that mark.  The deficit when he took office was $1.2 Trillion and his additional $800 Billion of stimulus spending increased the shortfall to over $1.4 Trillion.  So much for cutting the deficit in half.  In fact, the White House's own projections are for this year's deficit to be appx. $1.2 Trillion, the fourth consecutive year of $1+ Trillion deficits!
[Publisher's note: Obama's $4 Trillion figure includes more than $1 Trillion in cuts already signed into law.]

———

Biden claims that the Obama administration has created 4.5 million private sector jobs.  It was a line repeated by several speakers at the convention.

Fact: It's a very misleading use of statistics.  Intentionally so. (I'd call that a lie, myself)  They are counting jobs created only from the lowest point in the recession, intentionally ignoring the jobs lost earlier in his term.  This lets them hide the fact that overall joblessness has actually risen over Obama's term.  Other claims of job gains by the Obama administration are supported only by cherry picking their statistics. From the beginning of Obama's term, manufacturing jobs have declined by more than 500,000, according to the Labor Dept.'s Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Never since World War II has the economy been so slow to recover the jobs lost in the previous downturn.

———

Obama says that our troops will be brought home from Afghanistan in 2014, finally ending "our longest war".

Fact: Not quite.  While most troops will leave by the end of 2014, some analysts say the U.S. will require a post-conflict force of as many as 20,000 American troops to continue training Afghan forces, continue the search for terrorists, and to keep watch on other activity in the region.

———

VP Biden claims that Romney/Ryan aren't telling the American people that their plan for healthcare would "immediately cut benefits to more than 30 Million seniors already on Medicare".

Fact: A Medicare plan put forward by Rep. Ryan in Congress would have no immediate effect because it would only apply to future retirees.
[Publisher's note: Rep. Ryan's proposal would restructure Medicare for those under 55 at inception, including an option for a government sponsored healthcare voucher to help individuals purchase their own insurance, chosen by themselves according to their needs (they would also be allowed to keep any money left over after the purchase of insurance to use as they want as an incentive to search out the best coverage for the lowest cost, helping to lower premiums over all), while giving them the option to remain in traditional Medicare.]


Romney's plan to restore Obama's cuts in payments to healthcare providers could have unintended consequences for the program, since restoring payments to providers could accelerate the depletion of Medicare's trust fund for inpatient care.
[Publisher's note: This issue is addressed by the restructuring of Medicare for those under 55 proposed in the Ryan plan.]


You can access the entire article at the link below:

 http://www.charter.net/news/read.php?id=17626111&ps=1010&cat=&cps=0&lang=en

After all this, I think a little levity is called for.  Libertarian blogger/financial writer Peter Schiff was at the DNC speaking with some of the attendees.  Here's what they believe is a reasonable solution to part of our economic problems. 
http://youtu.be/07fTsF5BiSM



Saturday, September 1, 2012

RNC

This week, the Republican National Convention wrapped up in Tampa, FL.  There were the usual claims/counter claims by pundits on the network and cable news & opinion shows, although the comment by the Yahoo!News yahoo that "the Republicans are happy to have a party while black people are drowning" was more than a little over the line (Yahoo!News has since fired the individual).

Over all, I was very impressed (and more than a little surprised) with both the tone and substance of the event.  Instead of the constant diet of political "red meat" hoped for by the more rabid partisans, we got almost a reiteration of Ronald Reagan's "Morning in America", although no one used that phrase or even mentioned former President Reagan.

While President Obama's failures of policy were illustrated, sometimes pointedly, it wasn't done with the venom that so turns some independents away from politics.  Despite cries from the left that it was unfair to make some of those claims, even claiming that some of the speakers were lying outright, Obama's record is perfectly legitimate material for debate. (The claim that Paul Ryan's reference to the closing of a GM plant was a "pants on fire" by fact checkers turns out to itself be less than honest.  While the decision to close the plant was made late in 2008, it didn't actually close until April of 2009.  While campaigning, Barack Obama, in a speech at that same GM plant, said that "with the support of government, this plant will be making cars for another 100 years."  Apparently, when he took over GM, closing dealerships, illegally forcing bondholders to take a loss in order to give the union a large stake in the company as payback for their support, using taxpayer funds to bailout GM and strengthen the union's pension, he forgot his promise to the men and women working the line at that plant.  "Pants on fire"?  Not so much.)

The general tone of the event was not what has gone before, but what lies ahead.  The speeches outlining what conservatives believe and love about their country far outweighed any "Obama bashing".

My favorite moments included speeches by Ann Romney, Mayor Love of Utah, (former Secretary of State) Condoleeza Rice, Gov. Martinez, Gov. Haley & Sen. Marco Rubio.

Ann Romney did a fantastic job of introducing her husband to the wider public audience.  Largely dispelling the "silver spoon" moniker, she recounted their start as a young couple in a basement apartment, where their desk was a door on a couple of stands and their dinner table was a fold down ironing board.  She reminded those who claim that Mitt Romney is an out of touch, greedy rich guy that when he rescued the Olympics in Salt Lake City he did so without taking a salary, when he was Gov. of Massachusetts he took no salary, and when he went back to turn around the disaster that was the "Big Dig" he, again, took no salary.  Hardly the actions of a greedy man.  Secretary Rice brought down the house with her speech, closing with a personal account of the opportunities available in America; her mother and father, while they couldn't take her to a restaurant in the segregated south, still loved the country enough to convince her that, even if she couldn't eat a hamburger at the Woolworth's lunch counter, she could grow up to be anything, even President of the United States, and that little girl did grow up to become Secretary of State.  Mayor Love, Gov.'s Martinez & Haley, & Sen. Rubio also recounted their own personal versions of the American success story.  Marco Rubio recounted his father working 16 hr days and working for a time as a convention bartender saying, "My father was happy for the work, but it wasn't the life he wanted for his children.  My father worked at the bar in the back of the room so that someday I could stand behind the podium at the front of the room".  Each of these speakers had their own individual story of immigrating with little or nothing and/or coming up from desperate conditions to become successful.  So much for the War on Women and Republican "hatred" of immigrants.  All off the speeches illustrated the promise that is America.  The promise of opportunities largely unavailable in any other country.  They exemplify the ethic of hard work and dedication bringing success.  The Republicans are often accused of not being "diverse".  This lineup of speakers gives the lie to those claims. 

The speeches by Gov. Christy, Rep. Paul Ryan, and Mitt Romney himself were hardly any less inspiring.  It was widely expected that Chris Christy would reprise his role as an attack dog against the Obama administration.  However, while he did have more than a few criticisms of the current administration, his speech was not the bombastic assault many expected (and more than a few were hoping for, to be honest).  Instead, he spoke to the need to turn things around and of a vision of what is possible for the future, referencing his time as Governor of New Jersey.  His speech was more about making things better in the future than lamenting the failures of the past.  Paul Ryan was the highlight of the event on Wednesday night.  His speech was likewise all about the plans for the future of the country, talking about his and Mr. Romney's plans to get the country back to work, eliminate Obamacare and truly address the problems with healthcare costs, and the need to restructure the Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security entitlement programs in order to avoid their collapse in the not to distant future, preserving the programs for current seniors and those near  retirement age while changing how the programs are structured and funded to ensure they remain viable in the future as a supplement to those young enough to adapt and make changes to their own retirement plans.  The climax was Mitt Romney's acceptance speech on Thursday evening.  He wasn't flashy & he didn't set the world on fire. Instead, he was something not often seen in politics today.  He was sincere.  He was honest.  He was real.  He delivered his speech with an open earnestness reminiscent of America in a bygone age.  Human?  He was supremely so.  In fact, he at times seemed to be something more.  In spite of his obvious wealth, we saw the "every man" his critics said he could never be.  He can't relate to the problems and desires of regular Americans?  Go back and listen to the part of his speech where he relates the early years of his marriage to Ann where he talks about the long hours and weekends, about 5 boys who "felt a need to re-enact a different world war every night".  Where he said "if you were to ask Ann or myself what we'd give to be able to break up just one more fight between the boys, or to wake up and see a pile of boys in your bedroom......well, every parent knows the answer to that question."  Not a dry eye in the house, indeed.  Tell me again how this man is  cold, greedy, heartless and uncaring of the poor.

The Republican party put on a very effective event illustrating their governing philosophy and their plans for a prosperous future for America, calling on people of all faiths and political leanings to come together, contrasting that with the alternative promoted by President Obama and the Democratic party, which seems primarily to be based on a program of division along the lines of class, ethnicity, and gender/sexual orientation.

The Romney/Ryan ticket is the best opportunity for the Republicans to retake the White House in November, and the policies promoted by them (if they are followed up on and implemented as promised) are the best hope for a return to a prosperous America many of us feared gone forever.

The Democrats are holding their convention this next week in Charlotte, NC.  I will predict here and now that the tone of their convention will be much different that what was on display in Tampa.  We will see much greater viciousness towards their political opponents.  We will see attacks and accusations flying thick and heavy.  We will hear predictions of the devastation to come if the Republicans win the election.  We will hear claims that the administration's actions and economic policies have worked/are working (despite any objective evidence).  We will definitely hear that the Republicans want to raise taxes on the middle class in order to give huge tax cuts to "millionaires and billionaires".  What we won't hear or see is an optimistic vision of America's future.  What we won't hear or see are any specific plans for the improvement of the American economy.

Liberal/Progressive Democrats accuse the Republicans of being the party of "angry white guys".  Odd that none of them showed up at the event in Tampa.  I guess we'll have to wait for them to show up in Charlotte.